Redistricting: Will New Jersey Hang On?

A new study by Ernest Reock, Jr. of Rutgers University concludes that New Jersey will retain all 13 of its congressional districts after the 2010 census, despite the Garden State’s loss of 72,500 residents in 2006.  However, districts in South and Central Jersey are set to shrink.

That doesn’t quite jibe with Polidata’s projection which pegged New Jersey as losing a seat in the next re-apportionment.  Election Data Services also projects NJ to lose a district.

New Jersey currently has a 7 Dem, 6 GOP congressional delegation, but that could easily be pushed into a 9D-4R split with the retirements of Reps. Ferguson and Saxton.

5 thoughts on “Redistricting: Will New Jersey Hang On?”

  1. I’m from NJ so I’m rooting for NJ to keep their 13 in 2010.  It would be nice if we can get the Republicans down to 2 seats in time for redistricting, 1 in the north and 1 in the south.

  2. I can’t find his study on-line, but the only hope for N.J. is the big drop in north-to-Sunbelt migration we saw in the most recent census numbers with the crash in the housing market. Job markets cooled in Florida and Arizona, real estate’s a tough buy, and people can’t always sell their homes here. If enough people in the north stay put in the next few years, Florida might not pick up a seat people predicted it would, and N.J. might possibly benefit.

    Someone will have done the calculations showing what N.J. population would have to be to keep its 13th seat.  

  3. the thought is sweet, having it take in part of Albio Sires overwhelmingly Democratic district and making two moderately Democratic leaning districts…one can dream. I’d also like to get rid of Freylinghusen, Lobionodo can wait, since Democrats would probably win his seat when he retires. A 12-1 Democratic delegation would be awesome, as long as the gerrymandering wasn’t overdone, I want competitive swing districts that give Democracy a chance, that’s my view, and if Democrats happen to do much better in swing districts than Republicans…that’s just an added perk.  

  4. Put all of Mercer County into 1 district so that Rush Holt runs against Chris Smith. I’m willing to take my chances on the outcome of that one.

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